On the relationship between climate sensitivity and modelling uncertainty

Abstract

Climate model projections are used to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on future weather, agriculture, water resources, human health, the global economy, etc. However, climate projections have a broad range of associated uncertainties, and it is a challenge to take account of these uncertainties in impact studies and risk assessments. Knowing which uncertainties matter and which may be reduced via scientific research or political decisions can help policy-makers in making informed decisions, scientists in focusing their resources, and businesses in building resilience to uncertainties that cannot be avoided. On the global scale, the present political resistance or ability to move from agreements to significant action provides the largest uncertainty in climate projections, followed by the uncertainty associated with climate modelling itself. Here, we show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of model uncertainty over large parts of the globe not only for temperature, but also for precipitation and wind projections. Because ‘climate sensitivity’ is a collective term that encompasses a wide range of feedback mechanisms in the climate system, we may not know for a long time whether models with high or low climate sensitivities are more relevant for the twenty-first century projections. Nevertheless, investigations of climate impacts cannot wait. Here we argue that it is physically and statistically unsound to mix climate model with high and low climate sensitivities, and that the subset chosen for any impact study should depend on the question one is trying to answer.