Prognoses for future recovery from acidification of water, soils and forests: Dynamic modeling of Norwegian data from ICP Forests, ICP IM and ICP Waters

Abstract

The project reported here was a cooperation between the National Focal Centers for four of the ICPs in Norway: ICP Mapping and Modeling, ICP Waters, ICP Forest and ICP Integrated Monitoring. Dynamic modeling was carried out using data from several sites in the ICP networks, with the aim of making predictions on the future acidification status for surface waters, forest and soils in Norway. Predictions are made for three different deposition scenarios. At two of the sites, the model predictions suggest that the Current Legislation scenario will not promote water qualities sufficient for sustainable fish populations, while the scenario seems sufficient for the other sites. Under the Maximum Feasible Reduction scenario one of the sites still will not reach a sufficiently high ANC. In general, modeling results for forest soils agree with results from previous investigations stating that surface water acidification is more severe than the soil acidification. However, the results suggest that there has been soil acidification at all sites as a result of acid deposition and that the base saturation will not be built up again to pre-industrial levels during the next 50 years at any of the sites, not even with the Maximum Feasible Reduction Scenario.