Climate Change Scenarios for the SCANNET Region

Abstract

This report is mainly a review of sources for climate change assessments relevant for the SCANNET Region and presents a series of scenarios and results for the SCANNET Field Stations, besides presenting some general aspects of climate change modelling. The results presented are based both on GCM simulations and on the specific regional models covering the whole or part of the area. The regional models are the RegClim, SweClim and DMI models. With regards to local results/scenarios, the focus is on dynamic downscaling. Statistical downscaling is only discussed in general terms, as the regional application of such methods requires data and resources that are beyond the scope of this project. The report presents a number of scenario run results without giving a single authoritative scenario. They represent a selection of possible scenarios, and the credibility or "likelihood" of the different scenarios is not discussed nor indicated. The climate change predictions/scenarios for the SCANNET region vary considerably from simulation to simulation, both between AOGCMs and RCMs, reflecting a large uncertainty at local scale.