Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on rivers and fjords. Results from a Strategic Institute Programme 2002-2004

Abstract

This report summarises the results from a Strategic Institute Programme (2002-2004), where a linked-model approach has been used to assess the possible impacts of climate change on hydrological, chemical and to some extent biological conditions in a Norwegian river basin and its estuary. Two climate scenarios from two different Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) were fed into four individual effect models, linked together and applied at the Bjerkreim river and its estuary, southwestern Norway. The model-chain consisted of the hydrological model HBV, the water chemistry models MAGIC and INCA-N, and the NIVA Fjord Model. The main focus has been on future climate-induced changes in discharge and concentration and flux of nitrogen in the river and its estuary.