Dynamic modelling of acidification of Norwegian surface waters

Abstract

In 2006 and November 2007, the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) under the UNECE LRTAP Convention issued calls for data on results from dynamic models to soils and surface waters given specified future scenarios of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition. Submitted data from Norway is summarized here. 1007 lakes sampled in 1995 were modelled using the MAGIC model. The results were then matched to 2304 grid squares in the critical load grid for Norway. The past, present and future deposition (CLE=current legislation, i.e. Gothenburg protocol, and MFR=maximum feasible reduction) were specified by the CCE for each EMEP grid square. The results showed that the increasing trend in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in surface waters observed since 1990 will continue slightly through 2020. Many lakes in southernmost Norway will continue to be acidified (critical load exceeded) unless deposition of S and N is reduced substantially below requirements of the Gothenburg protocol. Under the MFR scenario, ANC can increase in most lakes throughout the country. Many lakes in Finnmark in northernmost Norway will experience reacidification due to projected increases in S and N deposition.