Impacts of Air Pollution on Freshwater Acidification under Future Emission Reduction Scenarios; ICP Waters contribution to WGE report (ICP Waters report 108/2011)

Abstract

The UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) is currently working on a revision of the Gothenburg protocol. ICP Waters has used the dynamic model MAGIC to evaluate the effects of future deposition scenarios (COB2020 (current legislation), Low*2020, Mid*2020, High*2020, and MFR2020 (maximum technically feasible reduction) on surface waters. These five deposition scenarios are very similar to one another and represent substantial decreases in deposition for the year 2020 relative to the base year 2000. At all sites the modelled results indicate that chemical recovery will continue into the future. At all but the most acid sensitive sites acid neutralising capacity (ANC) will increase to levels above the critical level for biological damage. Additional improvements in water quality can be obtained in the future with emission reductions beyond MFR2020.